da roleta： The England midfielder is the early frontrunner for the 2024 prize, suggesting football's presumed new duopoly won't go as many predicted

da bet7： There was an air of sadness around Lionel Messi’s Ballon d’Or acceptance speech on Monday. Clasping the trophy for the eighth time in his storied career, the Argentine spoke about his achievements of past 12 months, including his World Cup glory, before ending his time on stage with a tribute to Diego Maradona on what would have been his 63rd birthday.

Messi also admitted that the day of his retirement is moving closer. There was talk about just how long his body could survive, and if this Golden Ball, No.8, was his last. Messi all-but conceded that fact, turning to the other finalists that sat before him in the front row — Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe — and insisted that they were his presumptive successors to the trophy.

But Messi left someone out. For all of their quality, goals, trophies, and personal brands, Mbappe and Haaland can no longer lay claim to being the unquestioned duopoly at the very top of the game that Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo were before them.

Now, a third contender has entered the fray: Jude Bellingham. Right now, the Real Madrid midfielder is more likely to claim next year’s Ballon d'Or than anyone else — and signs are that would be the first of many.

The Mbappe-Haaland battle

It is perhaps a product of the last 15 years that the footballing world has turned its gaze towards Haaland and Mbappe. The two are remarkable footballers in their own right, the only two goalscorers in the world who can claim to come reasonably close to the numbers put up by Messi and Ronaldo over the last two decades. Mbappe is PSG's all-time top goalscorer, while Haaland broke the Premier League goal record last season, and is on pace to smash a number of significant milestones in the Champions League.

As with Messi of Ronaldo, there is also enough of a style clash to make this battle an interesting one.

One one side is Mbappe, the glitzy Parisian superstar who is a blur of stepovers, cuts and curled finishes. He scores the same goal a lot, but you can't really stop it. He lifted his team to a Ligue 1 title with a scintillating run towards the end of last season. He scored a hat-trick in his second World Cup final at the age of 23, and was back in team training 72 hours later.

And on the other is Haaland, the robot. Bigger, stronger and faster than everyone else, the Norwegian is the perfect blend of athleticism and intelligence. Never has a footballer so big managed to find spaces so small. He made 52 goals look easy. He won a historic treble for Manchester City, and made a mockery of various English records.

Throw in the contrasting personalities — the understated cockiness of Mbappe and the plain-spoken, almost sinister, tone of Haaland's every word — and there's a captivating duel at play. The fact that the Ballon d'Or voters too often gravitate to goalscoring stats above else, and it all becomes more compelling.

For the next 10 years, both Haaland and Mbappe will score a lot of goals, and win a lot of trophies, both team and individual. That's enough for journalists and social media alike to construct a narrative. Game on!

AdvertisementGetty ImagesBellingham's bolt from the blue

Bellingham, through two months of the season, has made a genuine case for changing that conversation. Previously, there was reason to believe that he could one day be in the running for the award, but with Haaland and Mbappe scoring at a frightening rate — and a handful of players of a similar age also impressing around Europe — that day seemed to be far away.

Things have, of course, shifted dramatically. Whatever timeline Bellingham was on has been accelerated rapidly. His numbers for Madrid so far this season are better than both of his main rivals for the 2024 Ballon d'Or. The England midfielder has scored 14 and assisted six for club and country so far this term — totalling more goal contributions overall than both Mbappe and Haaland.

His big-game performances only further his credentials. From his double in his first Clasico to seal a comeback win, to the last-minute winner to beat Union Berlin in the Champions League, to the slaloming run and finish in Naples that drew admittedly hasty Maradona comparisons, this is a player who not only produces on a regular basis, but does so in clutch situations — a crucial blend that separates the very good from the world-class elite.

This has all come in an important context, too. Bellingham's Madrid side were tipped by some to be markedly worse than they have been in recent seasons. The loss of Karim Benzema, and the absence of an immediate replacement to serve in his role, was supposed to hamper Madrid's goalscoring ability and limit their potential as a team.

But off the back of Bellingham's form, Carlo Ancelotti's side are top of La Liga and have won three out of three in the Champions League. Bellingham has not only filled the Benzema void, but also improved on the 2022 Ballon d'Or winner's output from last season.

Although Madrid had three more points at this stage of last season, their goal differential is better. Benzema, at the same point, had just seven goals and one assist to his name. Bellingham has almost doubled that goal tally, despite playing as a No.10 in Ancelotti's new diamond midfield.

Getty ImagesWhat else does Bellingham need to do?

Of course, the question now is whether Bellingham can keep this form going. He was backed by Ancelotti to score 20 goals this season after the weekend's Clasico, but in reality, he will likely hit that mark before Christmas. A first 30-goal season is, therefore, not out of the question.

That said, there is a sense that he will slow down at some point, even if it is becoming clearer by the game that Madrid's change of system was so as to build a structure around Bellingham where he could thrive. As long as nothing major changes, who's to say he couldn't reach 40 goals this term?

Perhaps this all comes down to his ruthless efficiency. Bellingham's 13 Madrid goals have come from just 19 attempts on goal. He is not someone who shoots for fun, or forces himself into forward areas. Every shot on goal is calculated. If there is criticism that most of Bellingham's goals have been from close-range, it is only because he gets into those areas in the first place. Stunning equaliser in El Clasico and show-stopper in Naples aside, Bellingham is scoring from where he is supposed to score. There is, after all, an art to being a tap-in merchant.

But what is the magic number, or ideal formula, that keeps him in the race? Mbappe and Haaland could both score 40 in their sleep, all while leading their teams to silverware. Mbappe's PSG will almost certainly win Ligue 1, while France are the current favourites for Euro 2024. Haaland's Man City should also be considered favourites for the Premier League, and will have their eyes on a Champions League repeat.

Bellingham's Madrid, meanwhile, will find it far more difficult to win La Liga, with both Barcelona and Atletico Madrid shaping up as early-season rivals. They aren't necessarily Champions League favourites, either. It feels like winning La Liga while finishing as the league's top scorer before leading England on a deep run at the Euros is the bare minimum required for Bellingham to maintain his current Ballon d'Or lead. It's a long season, but right now that doesn't feel unachievable.

GettyMidfielders and the Ballon d'Or

This is all made more difficult by the bias directed away from non-forwards in the Ballon d'Or voting. Although Messi and Ronaldo's claims to the trophy have been legitimate for the last 15 years, the lack of midfielders and defenders also in the mix has been glaring.

Luka Modric, of course, won the award in 2018 — albeit controversially. But aside from Virgil van Dijk coming close in 2019, it has been an award almost exclusively for the most attacking of players in recent years.

Andres Iniesta and Xavi both made the podium at various points in the early 2010s, but never received more than 17 percent of the vote. Even Kaka, in his 2007-winning campaign, claimed the honour while functioning as a second striker for AC Milan. Modric was the first player since Zinedine Zidane, in 1998, to win as a more typical central midfielder.

Bellingham, of course, is not a normal player. And for this Madrid side, he doesn't play in the same mould as Xavi, Iniesta, Frank Lampard or Steven Gerrard, who were all respectable performers in the eyes of voters at various points in their impressive careers. But he will still face an uphill battle by the very nature of his position.

It is, historically, not an award for English players, either. Michael Owen claimed the Ballon d'Or in 2001, while before that Kevin Keegan, wearing the colours of Hamburg in 1971, was the previous Englishman to win it. Bellingham triumphing, then, would be no small feat.